The one that is different in kind
Nearshoring to Mexico
Vietnam and India are alternatives to China that work the way China works: you order, you wait weeks on the water, you hold inventory against that lead time. Mexico manufacturing is a different shape of business, and the reason is four to eight days of road freight instead of four to six weeks of ocean.
What the transit time actually changes
Not the freight bill. The working capital. When replenishment takes days, you can order smaller quantities more often, hold far less stock against the lead time, and react to what is actually selling inside a month rather than committing to a guess two quarters out. For a business whose problem is cash tied up in inventory on water, that can be worth more than a lower unit price.
It also changes what a mistake costs. A quality problem discovered in a Mexican run is a conversation and a corrected shipment. The same problem in a container that sailed six weeks ago is a container of stock you own.
Where Mexico is genuinely strong
Automotive and parts, appliances, medical devices, aerospace, and a widening range of consumer goods aimed at the North American market. The industrial base in states like Nuevo León and Jalisco is real and has absorbed serious investment.
Where it is not
Skilled labor for complex electronics assembly is a genuine constraint, and unit labor cost is higher than Southeast Asia. Mexico is rarely the answer if your decision is driven purely by unit price. It is frequently the answer if it is driven by speed, inventory cost, or the ability to reorder.
USMCA is a separate origin regime, and stricter
Preferential treatment under USMCA is not the same test as the substantial transformation rule that governs ordinary country of origin. It has its own rules of origin, its own regional value content thresholds and its own certification requirements, and qualifying for it is a specific exercise rather than a consequence of manufacturing in Mexico. Assuming that assembling in Mexico automatically confers USMCA benefits is the local version of assuming that assembling in Vietnam automatically changes your origin.